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What's up and what's down in commercial finance (Q1 FY2026)

Where finance is flowing and where new opportunities are emerging.
by
Databook
3
min read
Published:
October 22, 2025
Last updated:
October 23, 2025
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Key Takeaways:

With Q1 2026 now behind us, trends in settled finance volumes and loan enquiries are revealing where finance is flowing and where new opportunities are emerging.

This quarter, seasonality played a big role. The post-EOFY period often brings a slowdown in lending, as businesses take a moment to review budgets and plan ahead. The impact? Opportunities fell nearly 9% compared to the previous quarter and settlements around 6%.

That said, year-on-year numbers tell a stronger story. Opportunities were up 3% and settlements 31%—a solid sign of continued growth and momentum among Australian SMEs.

💡Quick definitions

  • Opportunities are the volume of qualified finance enquiries received by Valiant Finance during the same period.
  • Settlements are funding requests that were successfully closed and funded within the quarter.

Opportunities 

Looking at opportunities, a few sectors stood out with strong year-on-year gains in volume: Real Estate, Transport & Logistics, Accommodation & Food, Agriculture, and Financial Services. Most also increased their share of overall enquiries, a sign of both growth and rising market influence.

And while some industries saw small quarterly declines, the broader trend shows that demand stays steady across the market.

Moving up: Top industries by growth in volume (YoY)

Rank Industry Change in volume
1 Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services
+36.21%
2 Transport, Postal & Warehousing +14.73%
3 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing +13.28%
4 Accommodation & Food Services +12.39%
5 Financial & Insurance Services +11.11%

Moving down: Bottom industries by growth in volume (YoY)

Rank Industry Change in volume
1 Public Administration & Safety -19.61%
2 Health Care & Social Assistance -14.37%
3 Arts & Recreation Services -13.7%
4 Administrative & Support Services -4.94%
5 Retail Trade -3.68%

Moving up: Top industries by growth in weighting (YoY)

Rank Industry Change in weighting
1 Transport, Postal & Warehousing +1.1%
2 Accommodation & Food Services +0.7%
3 Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services +0.6%
4 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing +0.3%

Moving down: Bottom industries by growth in weighting (YoY)

Rank Industry Change in weighting
1 Health Care & Social Assistance -1%
2 Retail Trade -0.5%
3 Arts & Recreation Services -0.4%
4 Administrative & Support Services -0.4%
5 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services -0.4%

Settlements

As for settlements, a few industries led the pack in volume and weighting: Public Administration, Financial Services, Arts & Recreation, and Agriculture. Even traditionally steady sectors like Construction, Accommodation & Food Services, and Wholesale Trade saw big lifts. 

These results show a strong lending momentum and growing confidence across most industries.

Moving up: Top industries by growth in volume (YoY)

Rank Industry Change in volume
1 Public Administration & Safety +140%
2 Arts & Recreation Services +134.78%
3 Financial & Insurance Services +115.38%
4 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing +82.86%
5 Health Care & Social Assistance +61.11%

Moving down: Bottom 3 industries by growth in volume (YoY)

Rank Industry Change in volume
1 Mining -54.55%
2 Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services -10%
3 Transport, Postal & Warehousing -3.33%

Moving up: Top industries by growth in weighting (YoY)

Rank Industry Change in weighting
1 Construction +2.2%
2 Health Care & Social Assistance +1.3%
3 Arts & Recreation Services +1.1%
4 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing +0.9%
5 Accommodation & Food Services +0.7%

Moving down: Bottom industries by growth in weighting (YoY)

Rank Industry Change in weighting
1 Transport, Postal & Warehousing -2.5%
2 Other Services -1.8%
3 Manufacturing -0.8%
4 Administrative & Support Services -0.6%
5 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services -0.4%

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The content in this blog is provided for general information purposes only. It doesn't constitute financial advice and shouldn't be relied upon as such. Always consult a licensed financial advisor, accountant, or legal professional to consider your personal circumstances before making financial decisions.

References:

About the author
Carolina Mateus is an SEO Content Specialist at Valiant Finance, creating content that helps SMEs navigate business finance with confidence. She develops clear, actionable guides to simplify complex topics and support smarter funding decisions.
Ryan Ragland is VP of Enterprise Solutions at Valiant Finance, partnering with OEMs, resellers, and lenders to embed finance directly into their sales workflows. He designs scalable solutions that speed up deal cycles, improve customer experience, and unlock new revenue opportunities for partners.
Richie Cotton is Co-Founder and CTO at Valiant Finance, driving the company’s technology strategy and product innovation. He oversees the development of Valiant’s embedded finance platform and scalable solutions that make accessing business funding faster, simpler, and more reliable for SMEs.
Alex Molloy is CEO and Co-Founder of Valiant Finance, leading the company’s mission to make business finance more accessible and efficient. Since founding Valiant, he’s guided its growth from an Australian startup to a global fintech powering embedded finance for major institutions and platforms.
Henry Baker is Head of Working Capital at Valiant Finance, leading the company’s working capital solutions. He helps SMEs unlock funding to smooth daily operations and support strategic growth without additional financial burden.
Luke Saleh is Head of Asset Finance at Valiant Finance, leading the company’s vehicle and equipment lending solutions. He helps SMEs access loans that match their goals, enabling them to scale efficiently and invest in essential assets.
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James Pattison is National Business Development Manager at Valiant Finance, enabling brokers and accountants to diversify into asset finance and working capital funding, backed by 20 years in finance.
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