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October 22, 2025
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What's up and what's down in commercial finance (Q1 FY2026)

Where finance is flowing and where new opportunities are emerging.

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Written by
Databook
Key takeaways

With Q1 2026 now behind us, trends in settled finance volumes and loan enquiries are revealing where finance is flowing and where new opportunities are emerging.

This quarter, seasonality played a big role. The post-EOFY period often brings a slowdown in lending, as businesses take a moment to review budgets and plan ahead. The impact? Opportunities fell nearly 9% compared to the previous quarter and settlements around 6%.

That said, year-on-year numbers tell a stronger story. Opportunities were up 3% and settlements 31%—a solid sign of continued growth and momentum among Australian SMEs.

💡Quick definitions

  • Opportunities are the volume of qualified finance enquiries received by Valiant Finance during the same period.
  • Settlements are funding requests that were successfully closed and funded within the quarter.

Opportunities 

Looking at opportunities, a few sectors stood out with strong year-on-year gains in volume: Real Estate, Transport & Logistics, Accommodation & Food, Agriculture, and Financial Services. Most also increased their share of overall enquiries, a sign of both growth and rising market influence.

And while some industries saw small quarterly declines, the broader trend shows that demand stays steady across the market.

Moving up: Top industries by growth in volume (YoY)

Rank Industry Change in volume
1 Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services
+36.21%
2 Transport, Postal & Warehousing +14.73%
3 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing +13.28%
4 Accommodation & Food Services +12.39%
5 Financial & Insurance Services +11.11%

Moving down: Bottom industries by growth in volume (YoY)

Rank Industry Change in volume
1 Public Administration & Safety -19.61%
2 Health Care & Social Assistance -14.37%
3 Arts & Recreation Services -13.7%
4 Administrative & Support Services -4.94%
5 Retail Trade -3.68%

Moving up: Top industries by growth in weighting (YoY)

Rank Industry Change in weighting
1 Transport, Postal & Warehousing +1.1%
2 Accommodation & Food Services +0.7%
3 Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services +0.6%
4 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing +0.3%

Moving down: Bottom industries by growth in weighting (YoY)

Rank Industry Change in weighting
1 Health Care & Social Assistance -1%
2 Retail Trade -0.5%
3 Arts & Recreation Services -0.4%
4 Administrative & Support Services -0.4%
5 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services -0.4%

Settlements

As for settlements, a few industries led the pack in volume and weighting: Public Administration, Financial Services, Arts & Recreation, and Agriculture. Even traditionally steady sectors like Construction, Accommodation & Food Services, and Wholesale Trade saw big lifts. 

These results show a strong lending momentum and growing confidence across most industries.

Moving up: Top industries by growth in volume (YoY)

Rank Industry Change in volume
1 Public Administration & Safety +140%
2 Arts & Recreation Services +134.78%
3 Financial & Insurance Services +115.38%
4 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing +82.86%
5 Health Care & Social Assistance +61.11%

Moving down: Bottom 3 industries by growth in volume (YoY)

Rank Industry Change in volume
1 Mining -54.55%
2 Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services -10%
3 Transport, Postal & Warehousing -3.33%

Moving up: Top industries by growth in weighting (YoY)

Rank Industry Change in weighting
1 Construction +2.2%
2 Health Care & Social Assistance +1.3%
3 Arts & Recreation Services +1.1%
4 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing +0.9%
5 Accommodation & Food Services +0.7%

Moving down: Bottom industries by growth in weighting (YoY)

Rank Industry Change in weighting
1 Transport, Postal & Warehousing -2.5%
2 Other Services -1.8%
3 Manufacturing -0.8%
4 Administrative & Support Services -0.6%
5 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services -0.4%

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The content in this blog is provided for general information purposes only. It doesn't constitute financial advice and shouldn't be relied upon as such. Always consult a licensed financial advisor, accountant, or legal professional to consider your personal circumstances before making financial decisions.

References
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Asset finance
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About the author
Databook
Last updated on
October 20, 2026

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