What's up and what's down in commercial finance (Q2 2025)

As Q2 2025 wraps up, we're seeing trends in both settled finance volumes and loan enquiries from SMEs across industries. By analysing where finance is settling and where new opportunities are being created, we're able to track which industries are seeing the most demand for finance now and what’s coming next.

As an industry-agnostic, lender-agnostic commercial finance broker working with over 90 lenders and having facilitated more than $2.5 billion in funding to date, Valiant is uniquely positioned to track real-time trends across the SME lending landscape in Australia. 

Note: All index figures are benchmarked against Q2 CY2024 so we can account for seasonality.

Definitions

What is the difference between Funded Loans and Enquiries?

Funded Loans refers to the number of funding requests that were successfully closed and funded within the quarter.  Enquiries represent the volume of qualified finance enquiries received by Valiant Finance during the same period. 

What is the Proportional Index?


The Proportional Index measures how an industry’s share of total finance activity has changed compared to the same period last year. A value above 100 means the industry made up a larger proportion of total settled or created opportunities in Q2 2025 than it did in Q2 2024. A value below 100 indicates a smaller share. This index helps identify which sectors are gaining or losing momentum relative to others, regardless of overall market growth.

What is the Total Volume Index?


The Total Volume Index tracks the overall change in the number of settled or created finance opportunities within each industry compared to the same period last year. A value above 100 indicates year-on-year growth in total volume for that industry, while a value below 100 reflects a decline. This index highlights where absolute demand or activity in the market is increasing or softening over time.

Top 5 industries by volume

What settled in Q2 2025

The following industries recorded the strongest and weakest year-on-year growth in funded loans, based on proportional share of total loans funded in the quarter.

Moving up: Top 5 industries by growth in share of funded loans

Moving down: Bottom industries by growth in share of funded loans

What's coming: New enquiries in Q2 2025

These figures show industries where new finance opportunities emerged providing an early signal of shifting demand across the economy.

Reminder: This index also compares against Q2 CY2024.

Moving up: Top 5 industries by growth in share of enquiries

Moving down: Bottom 5 industries by growth in proportional share of opportunities

Summary

Settlements were up nearly 20% this quarter, with strong growth across Construction and Hospitality, both holding steady in share. Retail Trade also saw more deals funded but dropped in proportion, suggesting that other industries are accelerating faster.

Healthcare and Social Assistance stood out, with a 40% increase in funded loans and a growing share. Agriculture, Arts & Recreation, and Financial Services all grew significantly, each recording over 50% growth in settlements and a 30% lift in share.

We also saw 20%+ growth in Professional Services, and Admin & Support Industries, pointing to broader reinvestment in core business operations. Meanwhile, Manufacturing and Transport & Warehousing grew slightly in volume but fell in share.

On the enquiry side, volumes were up just 1.9% year-on-year, with most industries holding steady. Transport saw a sharp drop in both volume and share, while Retail, Admin, and Agriculture enquiries softened. In contrast, Manufacturing, Healthcare, and Financial Services all saw 9–10% increases with early signs of momentum heading into Q3.