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What's up and what's down in commercial finance (Q1 2025)

April 3, 2025
by
Databook
2
min read
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Key Takeaways:

As Q1 2025 wraps up, we're seeing trends in both settled finance volumes and loan enquiries from SMEs across industries. By analysing where finance is settling, and where new opportunities are being created, we are able to track which industries are seeing the most demand for finance now, and what’s coming next.  

As an industry-agnostic, lender-agnostic commercial finance broker working with over 90 lenders and having facilitated more than $2.5 billion in funding to date, Valiant is uniquely positioned to track real-time trends across the SME lending landscape in Australia.  

Note: All index figures are benchmarked against Q1 CY2024 so we can account for seasonality.

What is the difference between Funded Loans and Enquiries?

Funded Loans refers to the number of funding requests that were successfully closed and funded within the quarter.  

Enquiries represent the volume of qualified finance enquiries received by Valiant Finance during the same period.  

What is the Proportional Index?


The Proportional Index measures how an industry’s share of total finance activity has changed compared to the same period last year. A value above 100means the industry made up a larger proportion of total settled or created opportunities in Q1 2025 than it did in Q1 2024. A value below 100 indicates a smaller share. This index helps identify which sectors are gaining or losing momentum relative to others, regardless of overall market growth.

What is the Total Volume Index?


The Total Volume Index tracks the overall change in the number of settled or created finance opportunities within each industry compared to the same period last year. A value above 100 indicates year-on-year growth in total volume for that industry, while a value below 100 reflects a decline. This index highlights where absolute demand or activity in the market is increasing or softening over time.

Top 5 industries by volume

Rank By Number of Funded Loans  By Number of Enquiries Received 
1 Construction  Construction 
2 Hospitality  Transport & Logistics 
3 Retail   Hospitality 
4 Transport & Logistics  Professional Services 
5 Professional Services  Retail

What settled in Q1 2025

The following industries recorded the strongest and weakest year-on-year growth in funded loans, based on proportional share of total loans funded in the quarter.

Moving up: Top 5 industries by growth in share of funded loans

Rank Industry  Proportional Index  Total Index 
1 Education & Training  131 (+31)  164 (+64) 
2 Construction  113 (+13)  135 (+35) 
3 Admin & Support Services  107 (+7)  127 (+27) 
4 Arts & Recreation  106 (+6)  124 (+24 )
5 Retail  102 (+2)  123 (+23) 

Moving down: Bottom 5 industries by growth in share of funded loans

Rank Industry Proportional Index  Total Volume Index 
1 Mining 25 -(75)  25 (-75) 
2 IT & Media   43 (-57)  48 (-52) 
3 Utilities  50 (-50) 43 (-57) 
4 Transport & Logistics  82 (-18)  98 (-2)
5 Health Care & Social Assistance  86 (-14)  103 (+3)

What’s coming: New enquiries in Q1 2025

These figures show industries where new finance opportunities emerged providing an early signal of shifting demand across the economy.

Reminder: This index also compares against Q1 CY2024.

Moving up: Top 5 industries by growth in share of enquiries

Rank Industry Proportional Index  Total Index 
1 Public Admin & Safety  125 (+25)  111 (+11)
2 Education & Training  115 (+15) 112 (+12)
3 Health Care & Social Assistance  113 (+13)  114 (+14)
4 IT & Media   113 (+13)  105 (+5)
5 Financial Services  109 (+9 ) 116 (+16)

Moving down: Bottom 5 industries by growth in proportional share of opportunities

Rank Industry Proportional Index  Total Index 
1 Mining 60 (-40) 65 (-35) 
2 Utilities 75 (-25)  81 (-19) 
3 Hospitality 94 (-6) 95 (-5)
4 Transport & Logistics 95 (-5) 95 (-5)
5 Manufacturing 96 (-4) 96 (-4)

Summary

  • While Hospitality was a top 5 industry in terms of funded loans in Q1 2025, we did see a drop in enquiries from businesses vs the year before. This reflects headwinds that the hospitality industry currently faces with reduced consumer spending and higher costs.
  • We saw strong growth in settlements in the Construction industry but this trend did not carry over into opportunities created.
  • Education & Training leads in both settled finance and new opportunity creation.
  • Mining and Utilities continue to shrink in both settled counts and share.
  • Public Admin, Health, and IT & Media are showing early signs of momentum, which may translate into higher settled funding opportunities through the next quarter.

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