- More businesses will integrate payment and credit solutions directly into the point of sale, making funding faster and more seamless.
- Companies will increasingly use AI for first-line support and FAQs, improving speed, accuracy, and self-service options.
- Lenders are targeting prime and near-prime businesses, creating more options but raising the bar for brokers.
- SMEs with stable cash flow, compliant accounts, and up-to-date ATO records will get faster approvals and better terms.
- Inflation stays above target, tech investment rebounds, and regional property markets remain strong, with AI driving long-term productivity gains.
As Australia heads into another year of tight credit conditions, rising tech adoption, and shifting customer expectations, Valiant’s leadership team sees 2026 as a turning point in how businesses access and manage finance.
Finance gets embedded everywhere as customer expectations shift
Alex Molloy, CEO & Co-Founder
Alex forecasts that finance will continue to move closer to the point of decision-making. Businesses want instant approvals, and vendors want to remove friction—a perfect combination for embedded finance to surge.
He predicts “more embedding of finance at point of need; a continuation of payment providers, e-commerce and equipment vendors integrating finance (including quasi-finance like subscription options) into point-of-sale.”
AI becomes standard in frontline service across major brands
Ritchie Cotton, CTO & Co-Founder
Ritchie sees 2026 as the year AI becomes mainstream in service delivery. While not universal, he expects a major shift in how companies manage first-line interactions, forecasting “normalisation of AI in areas of front-line service—not yet ‘across the board’ but several major companies handling level 1 support and FAQs using AI agents.”
For small businesses, this means faster support from suppliers, more self-serve tools, and an increasing expectation that service responses should be instant, accurate, and personalised.
Prime lending competition heats up, and AI fuels faster decisions
Luke Saleh, Head of Asset Finance
Luke sees 2026 as the year competition ramps up in quality segments of the market, noting, “More lenders will look to play in the prime and near-prime space, creating some additional competition for high-quality broker business.”
He also warns that this economic environment raises the bar for broker quality: “As we navigate tricky economic times, brokers (especially those new to the industry) will need to work even harder to ensure the solutions that are put in front of their clients best suit their needs and profile.”
AI will be central to this shift, with Luke predicting “clients will have access to solutions that are faster, more competitive, higher conviction and increasingly frictionless,” as lenders adopt smarter credit tools and automated decisioning.
Lenders will ‘reward the boring’ as credit models tighten
Henry Baker, Head of Working Capital
Henry predicts a structural change in how lenders assess risk, summarising the shift as lenders choosing to “reward the boring.” He explains: “As rates stay higher than the pre-COVID decade and bad debts from the last few years wash through, lenders are more likely to split SMEs into two camps.”
Businesses with clean compliance, consistent cash flow, and orderly books will thrive: “Businesses with stable cash flow and up-to-date ATO positions will get faster approvals, sharper pricing and more flexible structures.”
Those with irregular revenue, tax arrears or outdated statements “will find their access to working capital tougher,” even if approval is still possible.
His strongest message for SMEs: “The single smartest move for next year is to ‘professionalise your statements’ ahead of any funding need. Your bank statement and bookkeeping health, ATO standing, and ability to show clear forward cash flow will be as important as your revenue/asset position.”
Inflation stays sticky, tech investment rebounds, and regional property remains resilient
Natalie Ip, Head of Commercial & Development
Natalie sees a macro environment defined by stubborn inflation, a cautious RBA, and gradual improvement in business confidence.
She notes that inflation remains above target, with headline inflation at 3.8% and underlying inflation at 3.3%, and highlights that “inflation is expected to stay above target for much of 2026… at best one cut by mid-2026.”
Household disposable income has stabilised, which is supporting modest consumption, while “business investment is expected to pick up in 2026 following a softer 2025, supported by planned spending in areas such as technology and software investments,” driven by a focus on operational efficiency and digital upgrades.
Natalie also highlights the strength of regional property markets, where values “remain at record highs and continue to outpace many city markets,” supported by internal migration and improved borrowing conditions.
Looking further ahead, she sees AI as a structural economic force: “AI-driven investment will be a key theme beyond 2026, with businesses accelerating adoption of automation, data optimisation, and digital infrastructure.”
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